Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 18.606490 22.494078 26.807761 31.923426 37.797680 44.304741 52.029637
2025-03-09 12.732023 17.708200 23.840700 31.838823 41.869479 53.902722 69.286720
2025-03-16 8.828382 13.832703 20.559481 30.019885 42.709304 58.851636 80.608520
2025-03-23 7.164482 12.376231 19.886222 31.082722 46.877841 67.851063 97.206634
2025-03-30 5.575884 10.613355 18.380719 30.617960 48.703265 73.664758 109.791517
2025-04-06 4.832306 9.978652 18.368985 32.186326 53.366455 83.484604 128.196774
2025-04-13 3.535763 8.097080 16.068074 29.919320 52.092411 84.739481 134.644627
2025-04-20 2.986713 7.432599 15.638161 30.497340 55.072571 92.200693 150.181380
2025-04-27 2.576833 6.939266 15.411662 31.342817 58.474095 100.410427 167.138703
2025-05-04 2.266251 6.576957 15.355839 32.441194 62.315313 109.438500 185.668896
2025-05-11 1.953670 6.130892 15.062964 33.060118 65.363841 117.346845 202.803786
2025-05-18 1.597432 5.482798 14.258855 32.630879 66.558917 122.338315 215.621071
2025-05-25 1.242172 4.763127 13.260881 31.872603 67.398154 127.257588 229.331843
2025-06-01 0.996558 4.260246 12.652466 31.825350 69.548846 134.543102 247.326333
2025-06-08 0.710206 3.501169 11.280801 30.009239 68.243849 135.903927 255.776467
2025-06-15 0.612204 3.320014 11.274610 31.071915 72.431677 146.840328 280.355026
2025-06-22 0.474224 2.921467 10.619181 30.607291 73.593774 152.533307 296.417285
2025-06-29 0.425569 2.855648 10.848538 32.175220 78.889091 165.784418 325.723438
2025-07-06 0.284956 2.291635 9.525443 29.908848 76.203022 164.510333 330.155066
2025-07-13 0.237075 2.138253 9.386618 30.486706 79.438083 174.186802 353.862506
2025-07-20 0.201684 2.027527 9.357196 31.331946 83.291499 185.174518 380.248501
2025-07-27 0.175280 1.950970 9.423740 32.430017 87.758939 197.500550 409.411366
2025-08-03 0.146128 1.831621 9.315243 33.048769 91.207906 208.026963 435.707394